The 2020 crude build: a peak is different from a year-end change
Trace U.S. commercial crude stocks from 431.060 million barrels to a June peak of 540.722 million, using a preserved EIA history and explicit endpoints.
Read the studyRESEARCH FROM THE PHYSICAL MARKET UPRead the balance.
Read the balance.
Question the curve.
Explore the stocks, seasons and delivery conventions behind commodity markets. Follow dated source data into original studies and transparent calculations.
FIELD STUDY 01 / CRUDE OIL
A stock build has a shape.
Inspect the dates and quantities
CRUDE / commercial stocksGAS / seasonal storageCORN / forecast vintages
FOUR DIFFERENT QUESTIONS
Methods and limitations Start with the evidence.
Natural gas in 2024: the seasonal surplus narrowed
Compare Lower 48 working-gas monthly means with equal-weight 2019–2023 monthly means while preserving weekly counts and the distinction from EIA's official comparison.
Read the studyTwo corn forecasts for one marketing year
Compare May and August 2024 WASDE projections for U.S. corn in 2024/25, preserving forecast dates, reported totals and stocks-to-use denominators.
Read the studyA two-price curve is not a storage profit
An explicitly synthetic 80-to-82 curve separates price slope, linear funding, storage, insurance and a residual that cannot establish executable arbitrage.
Read the studyINTERACTIVE / REPRODUCIBLEA chart is a starting point.
A chart is a starting point.
Inspect its denominator.
Compare six years of weekly crude and gas stocks by calendar month. Then vary a two-point curve and its assumed funding, storage and insurance costs. Each output keeps its units and limitations.
Use the data lab01 Retained EIA observations, 2019–2024
02 Five prior years, equal annual weights
03 Signed prices, explicit ratio limits
04 Export the complete calculation
Build a careful commodity research process.
01↗02↗03↗04↗05↗
Curves & carry
Read delivery-month prices, separate carrying costs from curve shape and retain the contract convention.
Inventories & flows
Understand what a stock estimate measures, how it changes and which revisions belong in the evidence.
Seasonal context
Compare calendar windows without turning seasonal patterns into a price forecast.
Supply & demand
Reconcile commodity balances, crop-year forecasts, stocks-to-use ratios and units.
Research implementation
Keep delivery calendars, collateral, data rights and reproduction records with the analysis.
Carry the same evidence standard into diligence.
Explore Vector Ridge and Darren O’Neill’s documented background, inspect official research, and establish the actual product scope through an informed inquiry. This atlas does not establish commodity coverage for the provider.
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