Research area
Seasonal context
Compare calendar windows without turning seasonal patterns into a price forecast.
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Compare calendar months without confusing observation weights
Reproduce monthly inventory means and an equal-weight five-year reference, with explicit completeness rules.
Read gas injection and withdrawal seasons as tendencies
Compare seasonal starting levels, net changes and regional conditions without treating calendar boundaries as physical switches.
Align grain balances to their marketing years
Translate crop-year labels into periods and avoid mixing old-crop, new-crop and calendar-year evidence.
Describe commodity seasonality without promising a forecast
Use historical monthly comparisons as context while preserving uncertainty, structural change and vintage limits.