COMMODITY EVIDENCE ATLASVOL. 01 / 16 OCTOBER 2026
Commodity
Investment Research
Research archive / Edition 01

Four studies. Four evidence trails.

Government inventory observations, frozen crop forecast vintages and a separately labelled curve illustration. Each study names the question its data can answer.

The 2020 crude build: a peak is different from a year-end change

Trace U.S. commercial crude stocks from 431.060 million barrels to a June peak of 540.722 million, using a preserved EIA history and explicit endpoints.

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Natural gas in 2024: the seasonal surplus narrowed

Compare Lower 48 working-gas monthly means with equal-weight 2019–2023 monthly means while preserving weekly counts and the distinction from EIA's official comparison.

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Two corn forecasts for one marketing year

Compare May and August 2024 WASDE projections for U.S. corn in 2024/25, preserving forecast dates, reported totals and stocks-to-use denominators.

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A two-price curve is not a storage profit

An explicitly synthetic 80-to-82 curve separates price slope, linear funding, storage, insurance and a residual that cannot establish executable arbitrage.

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