{ "crude2020": { "version": "commodity-evidence/1.0.0", "series": { "id": "crude", "name": "U.S. commercial crude oil ending stocks excluding SPR", "unit": "thousand barrels", "source_url": "https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist_xls/WCESTUS1w.xls", "series_id": "WCESTUS1" }, "year": 2020, "month": 6, "selected": { "month": 6, "count": 4, "mean": 537898.5, "min": 533527, "max": 540722, "baseline_mean": null, "baseline_min": null, "baseline_max": null, "baseline_years": [ 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 ], "baseline_details": [ { "year": 2015, "count": 0, "mean": null }, { "year": 2016, "count": 0, "mean": null }, { "year": 2017, "count": 0, "mean": null }, { "year": 2018, "count": 0, "mean": null }, { "year": 2019, "count": 4, "mean": 476475.25 } ], "delta": null, "delta_pct": null, "comparison_available": false, "comparison_reason": "Each of the five prior same-month samples needs at least 4 observations; insufficient years: 2015 (0), 2016 (0), 2017 (0), 2018 (0).", "percentage_reason": null }, "annual": { "count": 52, "first_date": "2020-01-03", "last_date": "2020-12-25", "first_value": 431060, "last_value": 493469, "change": 62409, "change_pct": 14.478030900570687, "percentage_reason": null, "min": { "date": "2020-01-17", "value": 428106 }, "max": { "date": "2020-06-19", "value": 540722 } }, "monthly": [ { "month": 1, "count": 5, "mean": 430868, "min": 428106, "max": 435009, "baseline_mean": null, "baseline_min": null, "baseline_max": null, "baseline_years": [ 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 ], "baseline_details": [ { "year": 2015, "count": 0, "mean": null }, { "year": 2016, "count": 0, "mean": null }, { "year": 2017, "count": 0, "mean": null }, { "year": 2018, "count": 0, "mean": null }, { "year": 2019, "count": 4, "mean": 441940.5 } ], "delta": null, "delta_pct": null, "comparison_available": false, "comparison_reason": "Each of the five prior same-month samples needs at least 4 observations; insufficient years: 2015 (0), 2016 (0), 2017 (0), 2018 (0).", "percentage_reason": null }, { "month": 2, "count": 4, "mean": 443201.25, "min": 442468, "max": 444119, "baseline_mean": null, "baseline_min": null, "baseline_max": null, "baseline_years": [ 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 ], "baseline_details": [ { "year": 2015, "count": 0, "mean": null }, { "year": 2016, "count": 0, "mean": null }, { "year": 2017, "count": 0, "mean": null }, { "year": 2018, "count": 0, "mean": null }, { "year": 2019, "count": 4, "mean": 449606 } ], "delta": null, "delta_pct": null, "comparison_available": false, "comparison_reason": "Each of the five prior same-month samples needs at least 4 observations; insufficient years: 2015 (0), 2016 (0), 2017 (0), 2018 (0).", "percentage_reason": null }, { "month": 3, "count": 4, "mean": 457518.25, "min": 451783, "max": 469193, "baseline_mean": null, "baseline_min": null, "baseline_max": null, "baseline_years": [ 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 ], "baseline_details": [ { "year": 2015, "count": 0, "mean": null }, { "year": 2016, "count": 0, "mean": null }, { "year": 2017, "count": 0, "mean": null }, { "year": 2018, "count": 0, "mean": null }, { "year": 2019, "count": 5, "mean": 446658.6 } ], "delta": null, "delta_pct": null, "comparison_available": false, "comparison_reason": "Each of the five prior same-month samples needs at least 4 observations; insufficient years: 2015 (0), 2016 (0), 2017 (0), 2018 (0).", "percentage_reason": null }, { "month": 4, "count": 4, "mean": 508564.75, "min": 484370, "max": 527631, "baseline_mean": null, "baseline_min": null, "baseline_max": null, "baseline_years": [ 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 ], "baseline_details": [ { "year": 2015, "count": 0, "mean": null }, { "year": 2016, "count": 0, "mean": null }, { "year": 2017, "count": 0, "mean": null }, { "year": 2018, "count": 0, "mean": null }, { "year": 2019, "count": 4, "mean": 460726 } ], "delta": null, "delta_pct": null, "comparison_available": false, "comparison_reason": "Each of the five prior same-month samples needs at least 4 observations; insufficient years: 2015 (0), 2016 (0), 2017 (0), 2018 (0).", "percentage_reason": null }, { "month": 5, "count": 5, "mean": 531391.6, "min": 526494, "max": 534422, "baseline_mean": null, "baseline_min": null, "baseline_max": null, "baseline_years": [ 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 ], "baseline_details": [ { "year": 2015, "count": 0, "mean": null }, { "year": 2016, "count": 0, "mean": null }, { "year": 2017, "count": 0, "mean": null }, { "year": 2018, "count": 0, "mean": null }, { "year": 2019, "count": 5, "mean": 475034.2 } ], "delta": null, "delta_pct": null, "comparison_available": false, "comparison_reason": "Each of the five prior same-month samples needs at least 4 observations; insufficient years: 2015 (0), 2016 (0), 2017 (0), 2018 (0).", "percentage_reason": null }, { "month": 6, "count": 4, "mean": 537898.5, "min": 533527, "max": 540722, "baseline_mean": null, "baseline_min": null, "baseline_max": null, "baseline_years": [ 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 ], "baseline_details": [ { "year": 2015, "count": 0, "mean": null }, { "year": 2016, "count": 0, "mean": null }, { "year": 2017, "count": 0, "mean": null }, { "year": 2018, "count": 0, "mean": null }, { "year": 2019, "count": 4, "mean": 476475.25 } ], "delta": null, "delta_pct": null, "comparison_available": false, "comparison_reason": "Each of the five prior same-month samples needs at least 4 observations; insufficient years: 2015 (0), 2016 (0), 2017 (0), 2018 (0).", "percentage_reason": null }, { "month": 7, "count": 5, "mean": 530402.8, "min": 518596, "max": 539181, "baseline_mean": null, "baseline_min": null, "baseline_max": null, "baseline_years": [ 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 ], "baseline_details": [ { "year": 2015, "count": 0, "mean": null }, { "year": 2016, "count": 0, "mean": null }, { "year": 2017, "count": 0, "mean": null }, { "year": 2018, "count": 0, "mean": null }, { "year": 2019, "count": 4, "mean": 449113.5 } ], "delta": null, "delta_pct": null, "comparison_available": false, "comparison_reason": "Each of the five prior same-month samples needs at least 4 observations; insufficient years: 2015 (0), 2016 (0), 2017 (0), 2018 (0).", "percentage_reason": null }, { "month": 8, "count": 4, "mean": 508175, "min": 498401, "max": 514084, "baseline_mean": null, "baseline_min": null, "baseline_max": null, "baseline_years": [ 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 ], "baseline_details": [ { "year": 2015, "count": 0, "mean": null }, { "year": 2016, "count": 0, "mean": null }, { "year": 2017, "count": 0, "mean": null }, { "year": 2018, "count": 0, "mean": null }, { "year": 2019, "count": 5, "mean": 433589.8 } ], "delta": null, "delta_pct": null, "comparison_available": false, "comparison_reason": "Each of the five prior same-month samples needs at least 4 observations; insufficient years: 2015 (0), 2016 (0), 2017 (0), 2018 (0).", "percentage_reason": null }, { "month": 9, "count": 4, "mean": 495827.75, "min": 492426, "max": 500434, "baseline_mean": null, "baseline_min": null, "baseline_max": null, "baseline_years": [ 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 ], "baseline_details": [ { "year": 2015, "count": 0, "mean": null }, { "year": 2016, "count": 0, "mean": null }, { "year": 2017, "count": 0, "mean": null }, { "year": 2018, "count": 0, "mean": null }, { "year": 2019, "count": 4, "mean": 418843.5 } ], "delta": null, "delta_pct": null, "comparison_available": false, "comparison_reason": "Each of the five prior same-month samples needs at least 4 observations; insufficient years: 2015 (0), 2016 (0), 2017 (0), 2018 (0).", "percentage_reason": null }, { "month": 10, "count": 5, "mean": 489399.8, "min": 484429, "max": 492927, "baseline_mean": null, "baseline_min": null, "baseline_max": null, "baseline_years": [ 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 ], "baseline_details": [ { "year": 2015, "count": 0, "mean": null }, { "year": 2016, "count": 0, "mean": null }, { "year": 2017, "count": 0, "mean": null }, { "year": 2018, "count": 0, "mean": null }, { "year": 2019, "count": 4, "mean": 433105.75 } ], "delta": null, "delta_pct": null, "comparison_available": false, "comparison_reason": "Each of the five prior same-month samples needs at least 4 observations; insufficient years: 2015 (0), 2016 (0), 2017 (0), 2018 (0).", "percentage_reason": null }, { "month": 11, "count": 4, "mean": 488736, "min": 488042, "max": 489475, "baseline_mean": null, "baseline_min": null, "baseline_max": null, "baseline_years": [ 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 ], "baseline_details": [ { "year": 2015, "count": 0, "mean": null }, { "year": 2016, "count": 0, "mean": null }, { "year": 2017, "count": 0, "mean": null }, { "year": 2018, "count": 0, "mean": null }, { "year": 2019, "count": 5, "mean": 449042.2 } ], "delta": null, "delta_pct": null, "comparison_available": false, "comparison_reason": "Each of the five prior same-month samples needs at least 4 observations; insufficient years: 2015 (0), 2016 (0), 2017 (0), 2018 (0).", "percentage_reason": null }, { "month": 12, "count": 4, "mean": 499082.5, "min": 493469, "max": 503231, "baseline_mean": null, "baseline_min": null, "baseline_max": null, "baseline_years": [ 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 ], "baseline_details": [ { "year": 2015, "count": 0, "mean": null }, { "year": 2016, "count": 0, "mean": null }, { "year": 2017, "count": 0, "mean": null }, { "year": 2018, "count": 0, "mean": null }, { "year": 2019, "count": 4, "mean": 441501.5 } ], "delta": null, "delta_pct": null, "comparison_available": false, "comparison_reason": "Each of the five prior same-month samples needs at least 4 observations; insufficient years: 2015 (0), 2016 (0), 2017 (0), 2018 (0).", "percentage_reason": null } ], "assumptions": { "vintage": "Retained historical snapshot may include revisions; not point-in-time releases.", "monthly_mean": "Equal-weight arithmetic mean of observations whose period date falls in the calendar month; not time-weighted or an EIA official weekly comparison.", "baseline": "Exactly the five preceding calendar years; their same-month arithmetic means receive equal weight. Every prior month and the selected current month require at least four observations.", "baseline_range": "Minimum and maximum of five monthly means, not individual weekly observations or uncertainty bands.", "annual_scope": "First and last observed values within the selected year; extrema ties retain the earliest observation. No implied calendar-year opening or closing value.", "interpretation": "Historical inventory seasonality is descriptive context, not a price forecast or investment strategy.", "units": "Source units are preserved; no barrels/Bcf conversion is performed." } }, "gas2024": { "version": "commodity-evidence/1.0.0", "series": { "id": "gas", "name": "Lower 48 working natural gas in underground storage", "unit": "Bcf", "source_url": "https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngshistory.xls", "series_id": "ngshistory.xls:html_report_history:Total Lower 48" }, "year": 2024, "month": 6, "selected": { "month": 6, "count": 4, "mean": 3063.75, "min": 2974, "max": 3134, "baseline_mean": 2502.2599999999998, "baseline_min": 2129.5, "baseline_max": 2947, "baseline_years": [ 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 ], "baseline_details": [ { "year": 2019, "count": 4, "mean": 2245.5 }, { "year": 2020, "count": 4, "mean": 2947 }, { "year": 2021, "count": 4, "mean": 2469.5 }, { "year": 2022, "count": 4, "mean": 2129.5 }, { "year": 2023, "count": 5, "mean": 2719.8 } ], "delta": 561.4900000000002, "delta_pct": 22.439314859367144, "comparison_available": true, "comparison_reason": null, "percentage_reason": null }, "annual": { "count": 52, "first_date": "2024-01-05", "last_date": "2024-12-27", "first_value": 3336, "last_value": 3413, "change": 77, "change_pct": 2.3081534772182253, "percentage_reason": null, "min": { "date": "2024-03-29", "value": 2259 }, "max": { "date": "2024-11-08", "value": 3972 } }, "monthly": [ { "month": 1, "count": 4, "mean": 3008.25, "min": 2659, "max": 3336, "baseline_mean": 2758.41, "baseline_min": 2428.5, "baseline_max": 3021, "baseline_years": [ 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 ], "baseline_details": [ { "year": 2019, "count": 4, "mean": 2428.5 }, { "year": 2020, "count": 5, "mean": 2897.8 }, { "year": 2021, "count": 5, "mean": 3021 }, { "year": 2022, "count": 4, "mean": 2685 }, { "year": 2023, "count": 4, "mean": 2759.75 } ], "delta": 249.84000000000015, "delta_pct": 9.057391758295545, "comparison_available": true, "comparison_reason": null, "percentage_reason": null }, { "month": 2, "count": 4, "mean": 2489.5, "min": 2374, "max": 2584, "baseline_mean": 2058.95, "baseline_min": 1771.5, "baseline_max": 2282, "baseline_years": [ 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 ], "baseline_details": [ { "year": 2019, "count": 4, "mean": 1771.5 }, { "year": 2020, "count": 4, "mean": 2282 }, { "year": 2021, "count": 4, "mean": 2146.75 }, { "year": 2022, "count": 4, "mean": 1859.25 }, { "year": 2023, "count": 4, "mean": 2235.25 } ], "delta": 430.5500000000002, "delta_pct": 20.9111440297239, "comparison_available": true, "comparison_reason": null, "percentage_reason": null }, { "month": 3, "count": 5, "mean": 2309.2, "min": 2259, "max": 2334, "baseline_mean": 1667.8, "baseline_min": 1192, "baseline_max": 2017, "baseline_years": [ 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 ], "baseline_details": [ { "year": 2019, "count": 5, "mean": 1192 }, { "year": 2020, "count": 4, "mean": 2017 }, { "year": 2021, "count": 4, "mean": 1772.25 }, { "year": 2022, "count": 4, "mean": 1440.75 }, { "year": 2023, "count": 5, "mean": 1917 } ], "delta": 641.3999999999999, "delta_pct": 38.457848662909214, "comparison_available": true, "comparison_reason": null, "percentage_reason": null }, { "month": 4, "count": 4, "mean": 2381.25, "min": 2283, "max": 2484, "baseline_mean": 1742.7099999999998, "baseline_min": 1300.75, "baseline_max": 2117.75, "baseline_years": [ 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 ], "baseline_details": [ { "year": 2019, "count": 4, "mean": 1300.75 }, { "year": 2020, "count": 4, "mean": 2117.75 }, { "year": 2021, "count": 5, "mean": 1873.6 }, { "year": 2022, "count": 5, "mean": 1457.2 }, { "year": 2023, "count": 4, "mean": 1964.25 } ], "delta": 638.5400000000002, "delta_pct": 36.640634414216954, "comparison_available": true, "comparison_reason": null, "percentage_reason": null }, { "month": 5, "count": 5, "mean": 2726.4, "min": 2569, "max": 2900, "baseline_mean": 2100.79, "baseline_min": 1761.2, "baseline_max": 2514, "baseline_years": [ 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 ], "baseline_details": [ { "year": 2019, "count": 5, "mean": 1761.2 }, { "year": 2020, "count": 5, "mean": 2514 }, { "year": 2021, "count": 4, "mean": 2164.25 }, { "year": 2022, "count": 4, "mean": 1773.75 }, { "year": 2023, "count": 4, "mean": 2290.75 } ], "delta": 625.6100000000001, "delta_pct": 29.77974952279857, "comparison_available": true, "comparison_reason": null, "percentage_reason": null }, { "month": 6, "count": 4, "mean": 3063.75, "min": 2974, "max": 3134, "baseline_mean": 2502.2599999999998, "baseline_min": 2129.5, "baseline_max": 2947, "baseline_years": [ 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 ], "baseline_details": [ { "year": 2019, "count": 4, "mean": 2245.5 }, { "year": 2020, "count": 4, "mean": 2947 }, { "year": 2021, "count": 4, "mean": 2469.5 }, { "year": 2022, "count": 4, "mean": 2129.5 }, { "year": 2023, "count": 5, "mean": 2719.8 } ], "delta": 561.4900000000002, "delta_pct": 22.439314859367144, "comparison_available": true, "comparison_reason": null, "percentage_reason": null }, { "month": 7, "count": 4, "mean": 3222, "min": 3199, "max": 3249, "baseline_mean": 2757.4800000000005, "baseline_min": 2390.8, "baseline_max": 3208.2, "baseline_years": [ 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 ], "baseline_details": [ { "year": 2019, "count": 4, "mean": 2551.75 }, { "year": 2020, "count": 5, "mean": 3208.2 }, { "year": 2021, "count": 5, "mean": 2664.4 }, { "year": 2022, "count": 5, "mean": 2390.8 }, { "year": 2023, "count": 4, "mean": 2972.25 } ], "delta": 464.5199999999995, "delta_pct": 16.84581574481046, "comparison_available": true, "comparison_reason": null, "percentage_reason": null }, { "month": 8, "count": 5, "mean": 3302.8, "min": 3264, "max": 3347, "baseline_mean": 2932.58, "baseline_min": 2559.75, "baseline_max": 3395.5, "baseline_years": [ 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 ], "baseline_details": [ { "year": 2019, "count": 5, "mean": 2804.4 }, { "year": 2020, "count": 4, "mean": 3395.5 }, { "year": 2021, "count": 4, "mean": 2830 }, { "year": 2022, "count": 4, "mean": 2559.75 }, { "year": 2023, "count": 4, "mean": 3073.25 } ], "delta": 370.22000000000025, "delta_pct": 12.624378533577952, "comparison_available": true, "comparison_reason": null, "percentage_reason": null }, { "month": 9, "count": 4, "mean": 3468.25, "min": 3387, "max": 3548, "baseline_mean": 3203.9199999999996, "baseline_min": 2884.4, "baseline_max": 3643.75, "baseline_years": [ 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 ], "baseline_details": [ { "year": 2019, "count": 4, "mean": 3161 }, { "year": 2020, "count": 4, "mean": 3643.75 }, { "year": 2021, "count": 4, "mean": 3045.25 }, { "year": 2022, "count": 5, "mean": 2884.4 }, { "year": 2023, "count": 5, "mean": 3285.2 } ], "delta": 264.3300000000004, "delta_pct": 8.25020599765289, "comparison_available": true, "comparison_reason": null, "percentage_reason": null }, { "month": 10, "count": 4, "mean": 3746.25, "min": 3630, "max": 3864, "baseline_mean": 3588.25, "baseline_min": 3367, "baseline_max": 3901.6, "baseline_years": [ 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 ], "baseline_details": [ { "year": 2019, "count": 4, "mean": 3558.75 }, { "year": 2020, "count": 5, "mean": 3901.6 }, { "year": 2021, "count": 5, "mean": 3455.4 }, { "year": 2022, "count": 4, "mean": 3367 }, { "year": 2023, "count": 4, "mean": 3658.5 } ], "delta": 158, "delta_pct": 4.403260642374416, "comparison_available": true, "comparison_reason": null, "percentage_reason": null }, { "month": 11, "count": 5, "mean": 3955.2, "min": 3931, "max": 3972, "baseline_mean": 3719.6, "baseline_min": 3567.75, "baseline_max": 3941, "baseline_years": [ 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 ], "baseline_details": [ { "year": 2019, "count": 5, "mean": 3660 }, { "year": 2020, "count": 4, "mean": 3941 }, { "year": 2021, "count": 4, "mean": 3612.25 }, { "year": 2022, "count": 4, "mean": 3567.75 }, { "year": 2023, "count": 4, "mean": 3817 } ], "delta": 235.5999999999999, "delta_pct": 6.334014410151627, "comparison_available": true, "comparison_reason": null, "percentage_reason": null }, { "month": 12, "count": 4, "mean": 3577.75, "min": 3413, "max": 3747, "baseline_mean": 3432.2699999999995, "baseline_min": 3240.4, "baseline_max": 3652, "baseline_years": [ 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 ], "baseline_details": [ { "year": 2019, "count": 4, "mean": 3342.75 }, { "year": 2020, "count": 4, "mean": 3652 }, { "year": 2021, "count": 5, "mean": 3341 }, { "year": 2022, "count": 5, "mean": 3240.4 }, { "year": 2023, "count": 5, "mean": 3585.2 } ], "delta": 145.48000000000047, "delta_pct": 4.238594283083804, "comparison_available": true, "comparison_reason": null, "percentage_reason": null } ], "assumptions": { "vintage": "Retained historical snapshot may include revisions; not point-in-time releases.", "monthly_mean": "Equal-weight arithmetic mean of observations whose period date falls in the calendar month; not time-weighted or an EIA official weekly comparison.", "baseline": "Exactly the five preceding calendar years; their same-month arithmetic means receive equal weight. Every prior month and the selected current month require at least four observations.", "baseline_range": "Minimum and maximum of five monthly means, not individual weekly observations or uncertainty bands.", "annual_scope": "First and last observed values within the selected year; extrema ties retain the earliest observation. No implied calendar-year opening or closing value.", "interpretation": "Historical inventory seasonality is descriptive context, not a price forecast or investment strategy.", "units": "Source units are preserved; no barrels/Bcf conversion is performed." } }, "curve": { "version": "commodity-evidence/1.0.0", "input": { "near": 80, "far": 82, "days": 60, "funding_rate": 0.05, "storage_per_day": 0.015, "insurance": 0.1 }, "units": { "prices": "same currency per same physical unit", "spread": "currency per physical unit", "slope_pct": "percent", "annualized_simple_slope_pct": "percent per 365-day year (simple scaling)", "funding_rate": "decimal per year", "storage_per_day": "currency per physical unit per day", "insurance": "currency per physical unit over the horizon" }, "spread": 2, "curve_shape": "contango", "slope_pct": 2.499999999999991, "annualized_simple_slope_pct": 15.208333333333279, "ratio_reason": null, "funding": 0.6575342465753424, "storage": 0.8999999999999999, "carry_fair": 81.65753424657534, "residual": 0.342465753424662, "carry_reason": null, "assumptions": { "price_scope": "User-supplied or explicitly synthetic pair in matching units; no verified market quotes, contracts or delivery dates are inferred.", "funding": "Simple linear funding: near \u00d7 annual decimal funding rate \u00d7 days / 365. Negative funding rates are allowed within declared bounds.", "storage": "Constant storage cost per unit per day; insurance is an absolute per-unit horizon cost.", "carry": "near + funding + storage + insurance; residual is far minus this illustration, not measured convenience yield or executable arbitrage.", "interpretation": "Curve slope is not roll return, investment performance or a forecast. Contract, delivery, collateral, financing, costs and execution require separate evidence." } } }